DI Roster Caps, Transfers, and Recruiting

[Kuiper]

This is being discussed in a few different threads on this Board, so I thought it might make sense to make a thread for it.

As most people know, the House settlement proposed mandatory roster caps for DI sports. Here's a recent article with the basic details:

Part of the pending agreement would set new limits for the maximum roster size of every Division I NCAA-sponsored sport, reducing D-I opportunities by at least 4,739 if the settlement is approved.

Because the roster caps are smaller than the current average roster sizes in some sports, it is already having an effect, leading to roster cuts, withdrawn roster/scholarship offers to incoming students, and encouragements to players to transfer.

The new maximum roster size for 19 of 43 NCAA sports would be smaller than the current average roster in those sports. A handful of sports, including football, baseball and women's soccer, would be disproportionately affected. Those reductions already have forced many coaches to renege on verbal promises they made despite the pending uncertainty about roster sizes.

Football, baseball and women's soccer would all need to shed more than 1,000 athletes from their Division I ranks, according to data on the NCAA's website. The new limits in other sports are higher than current average roster sizes, which could lead to more opportunities if schools opt to increase spots on those teams. If those sports remain at their current size, the overall reduction in D-1 could be closer to 10,000 spots.

According to the article, Men's Soccer is one of the 19 sports where the roster cap is smaller than the current roster size:

Sport            New Max          2023-2024

Men' Soccer              28            32.5

There is still uncertainty about the details surrounding the roster caps because the House Settlement requires court approval.  Also, the election creates additional uncertainty because it may fast track a legislative solution that could either ratify or completely change the settlement details or remove the roster cap.  Nevertheless, roster construction is already proceeding as if the 28 number will not change.

The fine print around new roster limits remains undecided, leading to more uncertainty as teams construct their 2025-26 rosters. One power conference official told ESPN that the college sports industry was in the process of making decades worth of changes in a year's time, and while the official said he empathizes with the coaches and recruits feeling the brunt of those adjustments, answers to all their questions are still weeks or months away.

Some DI schools were below 28 players and might pick up players.  Others have recruited fewer players and will fill spots left by graduated seniors with transfers from higher DI schools.  But some players will transfer to DIII schools and some incoming players who might have gone DI in past years will go DIII instead.

Perhaps as evidence of the interest of D3 schools in this development, check out the D3 attendees at what appears to be a new thing - the Ray Reid Portal ID Soccer Combine for men's soccer players on Dec. 7 at Columbia

Something like 40% of the schools reported to be attending are D3 men's soccer programs, some of which aren't historically known for accepting many transfer students. 

Buckle up - the Covid grad transfer pipeline may be changing tracks from grad transfers to regular transfers, but it is still motoring along.

[eaglesoccerdad]

I am sure that schools with big rosters will be having tough decisions/conversations with the bottom half of their roster. My guess is that the ACC & Big Ten will have the resources to fully fund the full roster with scholorships and that these schools will be recruiting a lot more international players.
This will also enlarge the gap between the fully funded programs and the mid-majors. As an example, will Denver & Akron still be able to be top 25 programs if they keep their current number of scholorships?
One would think that this will push a lot of the domestic players to D2 & D3.

[paclassic89]

Yep, the D1 schools will end up with a larger % of intl pro academy washouts and everything will trickle downwards. D1 is a joke and I find it hard to have any interest in it.  The best domestic players are going directly to the pro level at this point. I just hope we don't start seeing the trend of 23 year old intl freshmen at the D3 level...